Introduction:

Since 7 October 2023, with the beginning of the Israel-Gaza war and its wider regional impacts, the Israeli military has carried out air and artillery attacks on various areas within Syria. These attacks continued after 8 December 2024, when the opposition forces led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took control of Syria. The Israeli attacks included bombing military sites, airports and land crossings, as well as civilian buildings allegedly occupied by military forces belonging to Iranian or affiliated militias, as well as Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian armed groups, and vehicles carrying their commanders or fighters. The Syrian Archive’s data indicate that most of these attacks were related to targeting Iranian commanders, militia allies or Lebanese Hezbollah, cutting supply lines to the latter, as well as some Syrian military installations and weapons depots.

The frequency of these attacks increased after the fall of the Assad government, and their nature changed, in terms of the places that were attacked and the type of weapons used. Ground incursions were the most prominent feature of this change after Israeli forces entered and stationed themselves in the governorates of Quneitra, Daraa and Rif Dimashq, in addition to bombing the military and strategic infrastructure of the Syrian army, including airfields, radars, air defense systems, missiles, scientific research institutes and defense laboratories.

These attacks killed civilians as well as forces affiliated with the Assad government and Iranian and Iraqi militias, Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinian Quds Brigades.

Methodology:

The Syrian Archive preserved a total of more than 3,900 videos, photos, posts, reports and articles, published on websites and social media platforms, detailing 460 incidents. These were recorded in a database for this investigation, showing locations of impact, first responses, first reports, damage, witness statements, official reports, names of victims, obituaries and funerals. The Syrian Archive’s activities included:

Counting attacks allegedly originating from Israeli forces during the investigation period from October 7, 2023 until January 31, 2025 and identifying the pattern of attacks through impact sites analyses.
Assessing the likely perpetrator of attacks by evaluating contemporary reporting, official statements, and other indicators of provenance.
Confirming impact locations by comparing landmarks visible in the visual content with satellite imagery from Google Earth and Sentinel Hub.
Examining how the nature of the attacks and the places impacted, both before and after December 8, 2024, changed with the fall of the Assad government and the caretaker government's coming to power in Syria.
Examining the ground incursions of Israeli forces into southern Syria, in terms of their current positioning, the nature of their deployment, the violations committed, and the historical and legal sequence of the disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria signed on May 31, 1974.
Investigating three case studies which highlighted certain aspects of the military campaign.

These data and investigations were the culmination of multiple stages of analysis of open sources. Cross-referencing complementary sources provided the team with information related to the date, time, location, casualties and damage resulting from the attacks. By examining all available information about the attacks, the investigation team constructed an understanding of the incidents and their potential perpetrators. To learn more about the research methodology at the Syrian Archive, please visit our website.

Additional notes:

Data and Results:

The Syrian Archive counted 460 incidents believed to have been committed by Israeli forces in Syria. Some of these incidents included bombing more than one location with coinciding times of attack. It cannot be accurately confirmed whether this data includes all attacks for which Israeli forces were likely responsible, but it comprises incidents that were confirmed by cross-referencing and comparing data, reports, photos, videos, and geolocations.

When analysing the data, and for the purpose of comparing patterns, the incidents were divided into two periods: between October 7, 2023 - the start of the Israel-Gaza war, and December 7, 2024; and between December 8 - the fall of the Assad government, and January 31, 2025. The data were analysed according to the chronology of the incidents, the nature of the attacks, the nature of the victims, the nature of the places that were attacked, and the types of weapon used.

Between October 7, 2023 and December 7, 2024 inclusive

The Syrian Archive collected 2,757 videos, photos, posts and reports of 274 incidents believed to have been committed by Israeli forces in various areas under the control of the Assad government, some of which involved bombing more than one location in or around the same area, or in distant areas that coincided with each other in terms of the timing of the attacks. This section of the data will be referred to as “pre-Assad government fall”.

Between December 8, 2024 and January 31, 2025 inclusive

The Syrian Archive collected 1,227 videos, photos, posts and reports of 186 incidents believed to have been committed by Israeli forces in various areas across Syria, from after the fall of the Assad government until January 31, 2025. This section of data will be referred to as “post-Assad”.

1. Distribution of incidents by month:

Pre-Assad government fall

The data show that November 2024 had the highest number of incidents alleged to be Israeli strikes, with 69 incidents in various areas controlled by the Assad government forces; followed by October 2024 with 61 incidents. June and April 2024 recorded the least incidents with 7 incidents each.

Chart of the distribution of Israel-attributed incidents in Syria from October 7, 2023 to December 7, 2024, source: Syrian Archive data

Post-Assad

The data show an increase in the frequency of incidents from December 8 to 31, with 141 incidents during this period, and with the highest number of incidents on December 8 itself at 34. The numbers declined in January 2025, reaching 45 incidents.

Chart of the distribution of Israeli-attributed incidents in Syria from December 8, 2024 to December 31, 2024 - Source: Syrian Archive data

Chart of the distribution of Israeli-attributed incidents in Syria during January 2025 - Source: Syrian Archive data

2. Distribution of attacks by governorates:

Pre-Assad government fall

The data show 282 attacks (some incidents comprised more than one attack) distributed across 12 governorates that were controlled by Assad government forces until 7 December 2024. Homs led the number of attacks with 101, followed by Damascus countryside with 66 attacks and Quneitra with 40 attacks. The least attacked area was Idlib with only two attacks. The Syrian Archive was unable to locate one reported attack.

Post-Assad

The data show 186 attacks distributed across 12 governorates, with Quneitra topping the list with 73 attacks, followed by Damascus countryside with 34 attacks. Hama, Aleppo, Latakia, and Hasakah were the least targeted with three attacks each.

3. Distribution of attacks according to the type of impact site:

Pre-Assad government fall

The data show 303 civilian and military sites in 274 incidents (some incidents affected more than one site) that were alleged attacked by Israeli forces. Of these, the Syrian Archive was able to accurately locate 169 sites by cross-referencing reports and visual content and comparing them with satellite imagery.

The majority of attacks impacted military sites of the Assad government forces and allied militias such as Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian militias (103 attacks); civilian facilities allegedly used for military purposes (70 attacks, including 1 attack on a consulate); and land crossings or bridges (60 attacks). Two attacks took the form of arrests; and the Syrian Archive was not able to determine the nature of 7 sites due to the lack of visual content.

Two Sentinel Hub satellite images of Damascus International Airport's runway on October 12 and 14, 2023 show three craters in the runway; captured 23 February 2025 and marked by Syrian Archive.

Two satellite images from Sentinel Hub of Aleppo International Airport's runway on October 14 and 17, 2023 show two craters in the runway; captured 23 February 2025 and marked by Syrian Archive.

Post-Assad

The data show 181 civilian and military sites in 186 incidents (some sites experienced multiple incidents; some incidents affected more than one site; excludes direct arrests and shootings) that were alleged attacked by Israeli forces. Of these, the Syrian Archive was able to accurately locate 128 of them by cross-referencing reports and visual content and comparing them with satellite imagery.

The majority of attacks documented by the Syrian Archive were attacks on military sites and ground incursions. The Syrian Archive has created an annex dedicated to reports of incidents of Israeli ground incursions in Syria, which can be found here.

4. Identities of people killed and injured:

Pre-Assad government fall

Data collected and cross-referenced by the Syrian Archive from October 7, 2023 until December 7, 2024 shows that 490 people were killed - 410 military personnel and 80 civilians, including women and children. The data also show that 479 civilians and military personnel were injured.

Post-Assad

Data collected and cross-referenced by the Syrian Archive for the period between December 8, 2024 and January 31, 2025 show 8 military personnel and 27 civilians were killed. The data also show that 56 civilians and military personnel were injured.

5. Types of incident:

Pre-Assad government fall

By cross-referencing reports, videos, and photos, the Syrian Archive has identified the types of incidents that reportedly took place in 274 cases. Allegations of bomb or missile attacks by combat aircraft, allegedly from the Israeli Air Force, constituted by far the highest proportion of the types of incidents, amounting to 186 incidents.

Chart of the types of incidents for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible, from October 7, 2023 to December 7, 2024, source: Syrian Archive data

Post-Assad

By cross-referencing reports, videos, and photos, the Syrian Archive identified the types of incidents reported in 186 cases. Allegations of attacks by combat aircraft, allegedly from the Israeli Air Force, again accounted for the highest proportion of incident types, followed by allegations of ground incursions.

Chart of the types of incidents for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible, from December 8, 2024 to January 31, 2025, source: Syrian Archive data

6. Analysis of patterns:

Pre-Assad government fall

The intensity of Israeli attacks on Syria varied since the Gaza War, reaching 129 incidents over roughly one year between October 7, 2023 and September 30, 2024, then increasing to 145 incidents over 68 days between October 1, 2024 and December 7, 2024. This pattern can be attributed to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, when Israel launched an intense air campaign and ground invasion of southern Lebanon from the beginning of October 2024.

Chart comparing the number of incidents allegedly attributed to Israeli forces between October 7, 2023 to September 30, 2024, and October 1 to December 7, 2024 - Source: Syrian Archive data

Israeli attacks were concentrated in the border areas between Syria and Lebanon. Homs and the countryside of Damascus governorates witnessed the highest percentage of attacks at 59.2% (167 attacks), followed by Quneitra and Daraa governorates which border with Israel in southern Syria, which witnessed 67 attacks; the remaining 48 attacks were distributed among the rest of the Syrian governorates.

Chart of the number of alleged Israeli attacks by Syrian governorates, from October 7, 2023 to December 7, 2024 - Source: Syrian Archive data

Chart of the number of people killed and injured in attacks for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible between October 7 and December 7, 2024 - Source: Syrian Archive data

Post-Assad

Israeli attacks escalated in the first days of the fall of the Assad government, and the attacks documented by the Syrian Archive during these 55 days can be described as the most intense of the investigation period.

Chart of the number of people killed and injured in attacks for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible from December 8 to January 31, 2025 - Source: Syrian Archive data

This period witnessed ground incursions into villages and cities in southern Syria, which accounted for 38.7% of the number of locations attacked, while a pattern of targeting Syria's military infrastructure emerged, as the data indicate that all military airports in Syria were bombed.

Chart of the distribution of incidents, by location, for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible between December 8, 2024 and January 31, 2025 - Source: Syrian Archive data

The largest distribution of attacks was in the governorates bordering Israel in southern Syria: Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida, which constituted 61.6% of the attacks, followed by the Damascus countryside with 18.4%. This reflects the Israeli government’s stated goal to control the ‘buffer zone’ in southern Syria.

Chart of the distribution of attacks for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible, by governorate, between December 8, 2024 and January 31, 2025 - Source: Syrian Archive data

Aerial attacks were the most prominent and ground incursions were the second-most prominent types of incident, accounting for 50% and 39.8% of incidents respectively.

Chart of the types of incidents for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible, between December 8, 2024 and January 31, 2025 - Source: Syrian Archive data

The number of civilian deaths was noted to be higher than the number of deaths of the Assad government forces, Iranian forces and their affiliated militias, and Lebanese Hezbollah, with civilians constituting 77.1% of the deaths.

Chart of the affiliations of persons killed in attacks for which Israeli forces were allegedly responsible between December 8, 2024 and January 31, 2025 - Source: Syrian Archive data

Comparison of alleged Israeli attacks before and after the fall of the Assad government:

Comparing the data documented by the Syrian Archive for the period from October 7, 2023 to December 7, 2024 (before the fall of the Assad government), and the period from December 8, 2024 to January 31, 2025, points to a number of conclusions and implications, the most important of which are:

The frequency of incidents increased after the fall of the Assad government, with data documenting 186 incidents in 55 days, compared to 274 incidents in 428 days before the fall of the Assad government.
A change in the nature of the places impacted:
- While before the fall of the Assad government, civilian airports (8 attacks), border crossings and bridges (60 attacks) and civilian facilities including residential buildings (70) were attacked, after the fall of the Assad government, there were no attacks on civilian airports, and attacks on crossings and bridges declined to 3 attacks.
- Ground incursions increased after the fall of the Assad government to 74 incidents, and attacks on military airports increased to 17 times, compared to 7 ground incursions and 2 attacks on military airports before the fall of the Assad government.
The number of military, Iranian, Hezbollah, and affiliated militia fighters killed decreased after the fall of the Assad government. While the number of deaths of the Assad government forces reached 218, and the number of non-Syrian-nationality fighters killed was 192 before the fall of the Assad government, these decreased to 4 military deaths and the same number of non-Syrian nationalities after the fall of the Assad government. This could be due to pro-Assad fighters abandoning their posts after the fall of the government.
The incursions and stationing of Israeli forces inside Syrian territory after the fall of the Assad government and Prime Minister Netanyahu announcing the ‘collapse’ of the 1974 Syria Border Agreement.

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Data and Analysis

Table Of Contents

INVESTIGATIONS